APPENDIX 1
MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL STRATEGY TABLES
Core Planning Assumptions
The table below sets out the core planning assumptions included in the MTFS projections:-
|
|
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
|
Pay inflation and pay related matters: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Provision for pay award |
3.50% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Employers pension contribution rate change |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
General inflation: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Inflation on social care third party payments |
2.00%* |
3.50% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on non pay expenditure |
0.75% - 2.00%* |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
|
- Inflation on waste PFI |
2.00%* |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
- Inflation on income |
3.00% |
3.50% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|
- Inflation on parking income |
3.00% |
3.50% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|
- Inflation on penalty charge notices |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Resources: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change to Revenue Support Grant (RSG) |
2.00% |
5.40% |
1.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Business rates poundage inflation uplift |
10.00% |
5.40% |
1.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Assumed council tax threshold increase |
2.99% |
2.99% |
1.99% |
1.99% |
1.99% |
|
Adult Social Care Precept |
2.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Council Tax Base |
0.79% |
0.90% |
0.60% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
*Inflation costs above these assumptions are included in the revised estimates for service pressures
Summary of MTFS projections
The table below sets out the savings /budget gap taking into account the anticipated expenditure over the MTFS period and the funding resources available: -
|
Medium Term Financial Strategy 2024 to 2028 |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
|
£m |
£m |
£m |
£m |
|
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
232.385 |
262.181 |
268.279 |
274.003 |
|
Remove net one off short term funding and expenditure |
2.631 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
235.016 |
262.181 |
268.279 |
274.003 |
|
Standard Pay and Inflation – Expenditure |
14.006 |
12.580 |
11.783 |
12.015 |
|
Standard Inflation - Income |
(3.622) |
(3.546) |
(3.648) |
(3.754) |
|
Demographic and inflationary pressures in Adult Social Care and Adult Learning Disabilities |
12.272 |
7.000 |
5.500 |
5.500 |
|
Demographic and inflationary pressures for Children’s disability, CiC, and Care Leavers |
3.645 |
2.000 |
1.750 |
1.750 |
|
Temporary Accommodation and Rough Sleepers - cost and demand pressures |
2.050 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
PFI contract inflation (Waste and Schools PFI) |
1.093 |
0.300 |
0.300 |
0.300 |
|
General Fund energy contract inflation |
0.500 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Home to School Transport - cost and demand pressures |
0.927 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Housing Benefit Subsidy shortfall |
0.700 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Income and Commercial Rent pressures (due to falling demand) |
2.020 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
All other pressures across council services |
2.799 |
3.750 |
3.500 |
3.500 |
|
Assumed additional government funding |
(2.500) |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Increase in Social Care Grant and Better Care Fund |
(5.390) |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Reduction/loss of Services Grant/New Homes Bonus |
0.669 |
0.079 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment -Change in S31 Grants |
11.458 |
(0.252) |
(0.108) |
(0.108) |
|
Commitment - Pay award 2023/24 above 3.75% |
3.809 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Change in contributions to/from reserves |
2.454 |
(0.274) |
(0.876) |
(1.125) |
|
Commitments - impact of previous decisions |
5.581 |
4.221 |
1.864 |
1.714 |
|
Budget Gap (Savings Requirement) |
(25.306) |
(19.775) |
(14.348) |
(13.907) |
|
Budget Requirement C/Fwd |
262.181 |
268.279 |
274.003 |
279.898 |
|
Funded by: |
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue Support Grant |
8.355 |
8.439 |
8.439 |
8.439 |
|
Locally retained Business Rates |
70.245 |
71.470 |
71.996 |
72.526 |
|
Collection Fund position |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Council Tax including Adult Social Care Precept |
183.581 |
188.370 |
193.568 |
198.933 |
|
Total Funding |
262.181 |
268.279 |
274.003 |
279.898 |